POSSIBLE CAUSES OF INCREASED COVID 19 DEATHS IN ITALY


Coronavirus disease (COVID 19) is an infectious disease caused by corona virus classified as pandemic due to its wide spread around the world. As at 21st March a total of 266,073 confirmed positive cases were reported by world health organization (WHO) with Europe having the majority of the cases which was reported to    be 128, 541.  
Italy’s increasing mortalities due COVID 19 disease is surprising the world. Fatalities are increasing day after day. On 19th March 475 deaths were reported, 625 on 20th and 793 on 21st.
Italy has ~ 9% mortality rate compared to global estimate of 3.4% by WHO and incidence rate of ~12.4%. Total confirmed cases are 53,378 as at 21st March 2020 with 4825 confirmed fatalities. The death has surpassed those in China. They are currently estimated to be 3255 cases.
According to research done by Aljazeera among other researchers, COVID 19 deaths were found to be highly depended on demographic factors and immune system of individuals.
According to worldometer and live science, Italy has life expectancy of 84 years which is among the highest in the world with low birth rate of 1.2 children per woman. It has an estimated population of 65 million people as at 2019. 23% of this population are people aged 65 years and above.
Chances of contacting some disease such as hypertension, diabetes and heart conditions increases with increasing age. Generally, this condition lowers individual's immune system thus becoming vulnerable to Coronavirus disease.
Compromised immunity lowers survival chances after contacting COVID 19 disease.
According to Italy national authority, it’s estimated that 99% of the reported deaths in Italy, victims had at least one pre-existing medical condition.
The finding was supported by Rome based institute which examined 18% of medical records of Italy's COVID 19 fatalities and found out that almost a half of them had at least 3 other pre-existing medical conditions, a fourth of them had either one or two others existing conditions. More than 75% of the viewed cases had high blood pressure, 35% had diabetes and a third of the cases had existing heart conditions. Its only 0.8 % of the cases examined who didn't have others pre-existing medical conditions.

According to Bloomberg reporter, the estimated average age of all COVID 19 fatalities in Italy is 79.5 years. Meaning majority are elderly.

As at 17th March, total reported deaths of people below age of 50 years in Italy were 17 out of 2503 fatalities. Which represents 0.7% of the total deaths.

Another important finding by ABC news is that, out of all reported deaths, male are majority with their number almost doubling that of women in Italy.

Italy public health also reported that 60% of that total confirmed cases and 70 % of the confirmed death in Italy were male.

Similarly according to China-CDC data, 64% of the reported deaths are male.

Klein who is a professor of microbiology and immunology at John Hopkins Bloomberg of public health was quoted by ABC news suggesting the reason may be that generally female do have greater/More robust immune response that male.
By Osuka E. Joseph
21st March 2020

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